Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 77989.965147 82380.008148 86773.420299 91496.984609 96428.716231 101422.720651 106858.900670
2025-12-21 70670.980367 77347.128177 84218.409767 91809.502412 99951.032863 108411.077898 117856.982328
2025-12-28 66295.674265 74613.233700 83363.667161 93236.063552 104044.337634 115497.295301 128530.671976
2026-01-04 62718.527319 72266.354492 82497.296350 94243.279463 107322.419971 121404.902656 137679.902381
2026-01-11 59588.761162 70097.926956 81542.055689 94882.278920 109955.899238 126410.218837 145678.567118
2026-01-18 56628.524328 67887.546203 80329.331219 95033.172658 111867.582455 130470.434971 152510.934775
2026-01-25 54098.916113 65996.122808 79321.482658 95268.487456 113745.642505 134390.989953 159109.838469
2026-02-01 51664.842908 64073.261921 78148.560078 95192.130236 115160.713029 137702.369175 164954.515793
2026-02-08 49944.835951 62888.972858 77744.321035 95927.016810 117447.229454 141967.355596 171872.045993
2026-02-15 47961.043899 61292.911508 76767.846986 95907.121095 118781.706972 145078.430846 177419.197450
2026-02-22 46864.068459 60705.084166 76937.461722 97203.410713 121638.375674 149954.424901 185039.857534
2026-03-01 45631.704170 59891.701505 76783.867141 98066.618506 123945.936202 154166.987660 191881.734639
2026-03-08 44006.495013 58549.215954 75955.094056 98091.111503 125242.120909 157197.182753 197366.586228
2026-03-15 42624.464300 57459.083719 75391.600407 98402.615361 126861.108921 160605.042315 203316.169574
2026-03-22 41918.803100 57187.830295 75813.078958 99907.873029 129929.960382 165766.974557 211408.470312
2026-03-29 41052.420410 56673.953401 75900.320946 100972.580174 132442.399952 170254.516994 218702.745239
2026-04-05 40059.149567 55957.976994 75699.775637 101648.396031 134453.950332 174125.201052 225256.282432
2026-04-12 38888.281052 54969.795710 75116.774401 101807.978883 135795.730494 177159.900565 230785.466892
2026-04-19 37820.156059 54079.955991 74626.925888 102056.907284 137228.313698 180296.662026 236445.426437
2026-04-26 36664.473898 53036.495882 73904.579062 101976.126912 138218.667366 182869.197013 241403.729702
2026-05-03 35929.207196 52530.565430 73859.989199 102753.530235 140293.172818 186799.199357 248074.445877
2026-05-10 34899.405263 51594.481165 73222.160001 102732.484108 141323.489780 189405.775014 253086.566446
2026-05-17 34480.576624 51475.641451 73652.159268 104103.626663 144151.937708 194298.630101 261012.799569